Report: Trump Tariffs Could Cost Washington $2.2 Billion, 32,000 Jobs

A new report from the Washington State Office of Financial Management projects that recent federal tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump could cost Washington $2.2 billion in lost revenue and nearly 32,000 jobs by 2029—posing significant risks to household budgets, key industries, and public services.

Governor Bob Ferguson held a press conference Thursday to unveil the findings, based on what is believed to be the first stand-alone, statewide analysis of a proposed trade policy’s impact on a single state. The report models how Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff plan would affect prices, employment, and state tax revenues if fully implemented and maintained through the next presidential term.

The results are sobering. The proposal would raise the effective U.S. tariff rate to 27 percent—the highest since 1933—and disproportionately impact trade-dependent states like Washington.

“This report makes it clear: The full implementation of President Trump’s tariffs will be devastating for Washington state families, businesses and our state budget,” said Ferguson. “The Trump Administration’s chaotic tariff implementation is already wreaking havoc on Washington’s economy and our businesses’ ability to plan for the future.”

The report’s key projections include:

• Grocery prices rising 16% cumulatively over two years

• Clothing and footwear increasing by 7% in the first year

• Used car prices rising 20–25%; new cars increasing 6–8%

• 31,900 fewer jobs in Washington by 2029

• $2.2 billion in lost state general fund revenue

• State GDP growth falling by 1.2 to 1.8 percentage points quarterly through 2029

According to the Office of Financial Management, the most vulnerable sectors include agriculture, food processing, and aerospace. Job losses in those industries are expected to ripple outward, affecting broader segments such as education, health care, and logistics.

An alternative scenario modeled tariffs already in effect as of August 7. Even under that narrower outlook—where the effective tariff rate is 18 percent—Washington could still lose 20,000 to 25,000 jobs and suffer significant fiscal losses.

“This report gives us a range of scenarios of how U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs could impact the state’s economy and future budgets,” said OFM Director K.D. Chapman-See. “It helps us see which industries could be affected, and where support for Washington families and businesses might be needed.”

Consumer advocates also raised concerns about the impact on low-income households.

“Tariffs are a regressive tax that disproportionately burden low-income households,” said Thomas Reynolds, CEO of Northwest Harvest. “At a time when grocery affordability is increasingly out of reach, leadership across sectors must come together to ensure everyone has enough to eat.”

Washington’s economic exposure to international trade makes it especially susceptible to tariffs and retaliatory duties. The state exports billions annually in aircraft, food products, and manufactured goods—industries directly in the crosshairs of international trade disputes.

To help mitigate the damage, the Governor’s Office said it is already using the report to inform budgeting decisions and to target support toward the most vulnerable communities. State agencies are working with ports, farmers, manufacturers, and small businesses to manage

disruptions in supply chains and global demand. Officials are also seeking additional flexibility from federal agencies to support impacted sectors.

Ferguson is also challenging the tariffs in court. In May, he led a coalition of 24 public and private entities—including lawmakers, labor unions, and economic development organizations—to file a friend-of-the-court brief supporting a multistate lawsuit aimed at blocking the trade actions.

Last week, the U.S. Court of Appeals sided with the coalition and ruled that the tariffs are illegal. However, the court allowed them to remain in effect temporarily, giving the Trump Administration time to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. Trump filed that appeal earlier this week.

Ferguson’s amicus brief stated that the tariffs “will continue to wreak havoc on Washington-based interests by disrupting established supply chains, forcing businesses and consumers to pay more for goods, equipment, and services, and interfering with the Governor’s ability to shape and implement a state budget.”

As the case continues to move through the courts, Ferguson says his administration is doing everything possible to protect Washingtonians from policies that could threaten economic stability and affordability across the state.

“This is not abstract policy—it’s dinner table economics,” said Ferguson. “We are using every tool available to push back against policies that hurt Washington families and communities.”